OSCAR 2024 Picks and Preview

The Best Oscar Analysis Ever

Dear Reader,

For two reasons, I decided to move the Parasite Pitch to a later and to-be-determined date. The first reason is that, I mean, it’s Oscar season! If I didn’t write a preview now, when would I? The second reason is also timing-related; I’ll tell you more about that soon.

Below are my Oscar picks for some of the “major” awards. For each, I’ll give betting advice (for entertainment purposes only) for those who want to clean up and impress their friends at their Oscar watch parties. Then I’ll imagine how it would go if I were the Emperor of the Academy. Then I’ll add a few comments.

Enjoy!

Best Actor

If I had to bet: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

If I were in charge: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Comments: I’m a big fan of Murphy’s work generally. And because that’s true, I feel comfortable saying that his turn as Oppenheimer isn’t his best work; it’s not even his best work in a Christopher Nolan film. (I think his performances in Dunkirk and Inception are better. And yes, I get that those roles do not come with the same degree of difficulty as this one does.) So much of Oppenheimer’s story hinges on him being as charismatic and enthusiastic in some moments as he is withdrawn and driven in others. And I just don’t think we got enough of that range. Giamatti, on the other hand, is as stirring as ever; he plays principled (and very bad!) teacher and humiliated human very well.

Best Actress

If I had to bet: Emma Stone, Poor Things

If I were in charge: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Comments: Hüller is riveting, and, in so many moments, it’s impossible to say for certain what she’s thinking and feeling. Stone is very good in Poor Things. But as my esteemed colleague Justin Brown put it, her arc has a stakes problem: she’s able to shrug off too many things, and not enough matters enough to her. I should also add, as I’ve said before: Natalie Portman in May December might have been the best performance I saw all year. (I’ll also add: I’m growing more and more confident that I didn’t like the movie itself.)

Best Supporting Actor

If I had to bet: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

If I were in charge: Christopher Melton, May December

Comments: Look, I still don’t like May December, but Melton’s performance is better than any nominee’s in this especially weak field. Seriously, there’s not one memorable performance of the nominees. I don’t even like Robert Downey, Jr.’s performance, and I love him. One more thing: as they say on the internet, with this category, the Academy has the chance to do the funniest thing ever. (Give the award to Ryan Gosling.)

Best Supporting Actress

If I had to bet: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

If I were in charge: Da’vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Comments: Randolph plays a stereotypical role without becoming a stereotype. I think she’s really good in that movie. I wouldn’t be crushed if Blunt wins; I would be disappointed, though, if America Ferrera somehow wins.

Best Adapted Screenplay

If I had to bet: Oppenheimer

I I were in charge: Oppenheimer

Comments: First, calling Barbie an adapted screenplay doesn’t seem quite fair or accurate. Adapted from what? I don’t love Oppenheimer, but I do think it’s the best of the nominees. As I’ve mentioned before, I’ll be disappointed if Poor Things wins. That story had so many chances to take big swings at very fraught material; and the story just seems to watch pitches sail over the middle of the plate. Speaking of which, the more I read about the source material for American Fiction, the more I feel confident that the Academy has another chance to do the funniest thing ever. (Give the award to American Fiction.) (I’ll explain more in a future Pitch for American Fiction.)

Best Original Screenplay

If I had to bet: The Holdovers

If I were in charge: Anatomy of a Fall

Comments: This was the toughest category to call for me—in terms of betting action and favorite. I think there’s a non-zero chance that May December could win; and I think there’s a non-zero chance I actually think it should win. And I don’t even like the movie. (I know, I know: I doth protest too much.) Because this category is safe from the Oppenheimer blitz, I do look at it as a chance to throw a bone to a very good and otherwise-awardless film. I wouldn’t be unhappy if any of the nominees won.

Best Visual Effects

If I had to bet: The Creator

If I were in charge: Godzilla Minus One

Comments: I wouldn’t feel confident betting on The Creator. I love both of these movies and the way they look. I will say that Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 has a fight sequence that was as much of a visual effects achievement as anything I saw. The only way I’ll be disappointed is if Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning: Part One or Napoleon wins.

Best Animated Feature

If I had to bet: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

If I were in charge: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Comments: I have neither strong feelings about nor strong insights into this category this year. Of the nominees, Spider-Man was the only one I saw. And, not to be a hater: it’s not that great. It’s gorgeous, yes, a sumptuous feast for the senses. And I love the side characters, especially Spider-Punk. But the original was just so much better.

Best Director

If I had to bet: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

If I were in charge: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Comments: This one will bum me out, because Oppenheimer isn’t Nolan’s best work. I mean, I still consider his lack of a nomination for Inception one of the most glaring snubs of the 21st century. Oppenheimer is an achievement, for sure. But the scene everyone raves about—his out-of-body experience as the crowd roars in approval after his speech—is pretty heavy-handed. And, come on. Did it have to be that long? Its last few minutes are wonderful. But it sure takes a long time to get there.  Anatomy of a Fall, on the other hand, feels like a taut two-and-a-half hours. Triet does so often what I’ve always loved about Tarantino at his best: get the absolute most of a given scene.

Best Picture

If I had to bet: Oppenheimer

If I were in charge: Anatomy of a Fall

Comments: What else can I say? Justin Brown told me early on that Anatomy of a Fall was great; and, as usual, he was right. It’s the best movie I saw this year.

See you on March 20th, when we discussed Interstellar (2014). (Editor’s note: it’ll be either that or Parasite.)